Long-Term Bets on Individual NFL Games: Worth a Punt?

We are on the verge of another NFL season getting underway, with the action set to get underway in early September and take us all the way through to February and Super Bowl LX.

Of course, the NFL season in its entirety is also a huge betting event, taking in billions in wagers over the coming months. Some bettors will look at the weekly games as they come, whereas others will be poring over the NFL Playoff betting odds and Super Bowl futures markets, backing their teams to go all the way in the postseason.

Yet, as a strategy for NFL betting, we wanted to discuss placing long-term bets on individual games. By that, we mean picking out matchups later in the season and placing your bets now. For those wondering, DraftKings and other top sportsbooks compile odds for games across numerous weeks of the regular season, so you can bet on games months in advance.

The pertinent question is: why do this at all? Why not wait until closer to the game, so you can assess aspects like injuries and form? Well, the simple answer is that it might offer more value to get ahead of the game. We can illustrate our point with an example.

The Chiefs slowed down at the end of the 2024 regular season

On Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders in both teams’ final game of the regular season. The Chiefs will almost certainly be favorites, something that will be reflected in the odds. The Chiefs are among the favorites for the Super Bowl, whereas the Raiders are predicted to have a season of irrelevance. Things can change, sure, but that’s the prognosis as it stands today.

But what if we reach Week 18 and the Chiefs have already locked up a Playoff spot? What if they have already got the AFC No.1 Seed? These things are very possible, and it might be the case that head coach Andy Reid decides that his team takes its foot off the gas, saving their energy and limiting injuries ahead of the grueling postseason. This is not uncommon for Playoff-bound teams, and it happened in last season’s final game for the Chiefs, who lost 38-0 in a one-sided game to the Broncos.

Thus, it might be worth a punt on the Raiders. Certainly, you can anticipate the sportsbooks’ moves ahead of time, getting in early. Now, to be clear, we aren’t saying to follow this particular strategy for these teams – we used the Raiders and Chiefs merely to illustrate a point. Yet, you can appreciate the logic: you would get better odds on the Raiders today compared to January when it becomes clear that the Chiefs have one eye on the Playoffs. The Chiefs played their reserve team in that 38-0 loss, so sportsbooks will have adjusted the odds to reflect that.

New elements of risk introduced to this betting strategy

On the other hand, the strategy introduces new elements of risk. Perhaps the Chiefs don’t waltz through to the Playoffs with ease, and that final game of the regular season is a must-win scenario? It is possible. No teams are given a divine right to win. Yet, if you can weigh up the value of the odds in a risk-versus-reward basis and see it’s worth the risk, it is an interesting way to go.

In a sense, the strategy mimics that of ante-post betting on horses. Say, for example, you have clocked a horse that has big odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. It’s a long, hard road between now and next May, and a lot could happen – the horse might not even qualify. Yet, ante-post horse racing bettors calculate the risk, hoping that their pick blazes through the Road to the Kentucky Derby and starts as a hot favorite on the day.

In the end, the advice is to remain patient. But, as with all betting strategies, if you can pinpoint some value by playing the long-term game with the NFL, it might be worth a shot. Those bets – the ones where you get more value than the average bettor – are the most satisfying when they come off.